The midterm election is done with. What does that mean? Time to start thinking about 2012: A Presidential Odessey. Er…election. So we all know that Obama will run again barring something catastrophic. But the big mystery is who will the GOP nominate?
It became clear on Tuesday that the base of the party isn’t ready, at this moment anyway, to elect some “lame-stream” Republican but things may change in two years. I think the power of the Tea Party will probably be reduced quite a bit after seeing what it’s like to have two years of government doing absolutely nothing. A more compromising, center-left candidate will have a better chance than they would today. But they’re still the base and they’ll still be pissed.
So here are my initial odds for the GOP Prez nomination in 2012 based upon very little but my own amateur insight.
5 to 1 – NJ Governor Chris Christie – A very popular guy from a blue state. The GOP may be ready for someone who can make deals and actually make things happen. If he’s nominated I think Obama’s in some trouble. On the downside – ok, I’ll say it. Christie is fat. Americans like their in-shape handsome presidents. We haven’t voted in a less than attractive President since Nixon. And he’s going to look even fatter next to wiry rail thin Obama. Christie does have some time to get in better shape though.
5 to 1 – Mitt Romney – If the economy is still in the shitter he’ll make a good argument that he can manage the economy. However he reeks of mainstream GOP, helped pass the Massachusetts model for the hated Obamacare bill and is a Mormon, which many fundamentalist Christian’s do not even consider Christian. He continues to build a good organization in the early states, however, and will have a great chance to win some, especially New Hampshire.
5 to 1 – Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels – I and most others know very little about him now but he continues to be a popular outsider choice among those in the know.
6 to 1 – Sarah Palin – She’s almost definitely going to run. She’s extremely popular among the base and, at this point, is probably seen by a plurality of Republicans as the leader of her party. She is, however, seen as unqualified by many Republicans. She resigned the only major office she ever held. She has national unfavorables in the 60% range. She is pretty much completely unelectable on a national level. It’s Obama’s dream to run against her in 2012 – she won’t even make it a race.
9 to 1 – Missippi Governor Haley Barbour – The head of the Republican Governor’s Association is a respected insider candidate who just helped a bunch of Governor’s mansions go red. He’s one of the most respected minds in the party. The problem is he reeks of the Old South. He was once a lobbyist for Big Tobacco. The next Republican president is going to need to take some big swing states and I don’t see a good old boy like Barbour having any sort of mass appeal in places like Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc. Pretty darn unelectable.
12 to 1 – Former Congressman Newt Gingrich – I’m really not sure Newt will even run. This is really a shot in the dark as I really have no idea what Republican voters will think of him.
12 to 1 – Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty – He’s had a hard time getting publicity while the Tea Party has been the ones occupying the zeitgeist but he has plenty of time to get himself out there. He strikes me as sort of the Bob Dole of 2012 – the ho hum dull safe guy who won’t really get anybody excited. Didn’t work so well for Dole in ’96.
4 to 1 – The Field. I don’t see a strong front-runner in this group and wouldn’t be surprised if somebody like LA Gov. Bobby Jindall, new FL Senator Marco Rubio, Indiana Congressman Mike Pence or even somebody like Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann came out the winner. So I’m making “the field” the favorite. However, as you see above, I’m not giving anybody who is currently a sitting Congressman or Senator much of a chance. The next two years will be a do-nothing Congress so there will be precious few real “accomplishments” for anybody to run on.
Who have I left out? Any dark horse candidates you think may show up?
