Pretty freaking good if I don’t say so myself! (predictions in italics)
Massachusetts elections and ballot measures
Massachusetts Governor:
Patrick (D): 48
Baker (R): 43
Cahill (I): 5
Hit! Acutal results were 48/42/8
Massachusetts House – 10th District:
Keating (D): 52
Perry (R): 47
Hit! Actual results were 47/42 – same 5 point margin that I predicted but I didn’t realize all the Independent candidates were there too!
Massachusetts House – 4th District:
Frank (D): 56
Bielat (R): 42
Hit! Actual results: 54/43 – I predicted a bit of a bigger win but Barney still pulled it off. Also his victory speech was both arrogant and hillarious! He’s far from a humble man.
Question #1 – Eliminate the alcohol tax:
No: 52
Yes: 48
Miss! Was actually 52/48 approve. Boo!
Question #2 – Housing development issue
No: 55
Yes: 45
Hit! 58/42 defeated.
Question #3 – Sales tax reduction
Yes: 50.4
No: 49.6
Miss! Of course I really didn’t think this would pass but I was still afraid. Acutally defeated 57/43.
National Picture
The final tally in the Senate will be 51 Dems, 48 GOP and 1 I (good old Socialist Bernie Sanders)
I forgot about Joe Liberman in my predictions (he’s officially an Independent now.) The only real question about this number now is Patty Murray and if she loses I’ll have hit it right on the mark: 50/48/2
The house will be 230 GOP, 205 Dem
I underestimated the bloodbath for the Dems. They’re probably going to end up with less than 200 seats when all the counting is done.
Alaska Senate:
Miller (R): 37
Murkowski (Write In): 31
McAdams (D): 24
Miss! I had no idea how crazy this race was. Looks like Murkowski is going to pull it off something like 41/34 for Miller/24 for McAdams. A very very successful write-in campaign! Well done Lisa – stick it to the Tea Party! Sarah Palin will be sad about this result.
Arkansas Senate:
Boozman (R): 55
Lincoln (D): 43
Hit! Big loss for Lincoln – 58/37
California Senate:
Boxer (D): 52
Fiorina (R): 47
Hit! Fiorina got less votes than I thought she would: Boxer wins 52/43
Colorado Senate:
Bennett (D): 51
Buck (R): 49
Hit! Though it was very very close: 48/47 win for Bennett.
Connecticut Senate:
Blumenthal (D): 52
McMahon (R): 46
Hit! Blumenthal pile-drives McMahon and wins 55/44. McMahon spent a lot of her own money to lose this big: $400/vote in the primary and about $100/vote in the general.
Delaware Senate:
Coons (D): 58
O’Donnell (R): 40
Hit! Got this one almost exact! Coons wins 57/40.
Illinois Senate:
Giannoulias (D): 50.3
Kirk (R): 49.5
Miss! Kirk squeaks by 48/46.
Kentucky Senate:
Paul (R): 51
Conway (D): 49
Hit! But I missed the percentages by a lot. Paul won big 56/44.
Missourri Senate:
Blunt (R): 53
Carnahan (D): 46
Hit! Blunt won 54/41
Nevada Senate:
Reid (D): 52
Angle (R): 47
Hit! My underdog prediction was right and I hit the 5% margin too! Reid won 50/45.
New Hampshire Senate:
Ayotte (R): 53
Hodes (D): 46
Hit! Ayotte wins in a landslide 60/37
Pennsylvania Senate:
Toomey (R): 51
Sestak (D): 49
Hit! Got this one exactly 51/49!
West Virginia Senate:
Manchin (D): 52
Raese (R): 48
Hit! Manchin wins pretty handily 53/43.
While West Virginia still continues to trend solidly Red in Presidential they continue to send their pro-coal, anti-environment gun loving Democrats to Washington. Except, of course, Jay Rockefeller continues to be one of the most liberal Senators yet keeps winning re-election to WV. Somebody explain it to me!
Wisconsin Senate:
Johnson (R): 50.5
Feingold (D): 49.2
Hit! Wasn’t even this close. Johnson wins 52/47.
Governorships
California Governor:
Brown (D): 53
Whitman (R): 46
Hit! Brown demolishes Whitman 54/41 and becomes the chief executive of the failed state that is California. Good luck there Jerry! It still baffles me that Meg Whitman spent $150 million of her own money in a failed attempt to be at the head of the catastro-fuck that is California right now.
So, I did really well! Looking back why didn’t I do a prediction for Washington Senate? Who knows. Looks like Murray will probably pull it out though.
Final tally: 17 hits, 4 misses
