So yesterday the American people spoke. They said “throw out the bums” and gave the GOP as 60 seat majority in Congress. And they also gave the GOP a mandate. What was demonstrated is that americans are a bunch of spoiled children – a bunch of Veruca Salt’s whining “But daddy I want it and I want it now!”
Based upon what I’m reading exit polls say large amounts of people want the government to legislate to create more jobs. But at the same time large amounts also want smaller government. They want to reduce the budget deficit. But at the same time they do not want tax increases and do not want reductions in Medicare, Social Security or, really 99% of the current Federal budget. They want the GOP to come in with a magic wand and bring us all back to 1998 when the world was safe, we all had jobs, the tech bubble provided enormous Federal budget surpluses and everything was hunky dory – so much so that the country had the luxury of having their top priority freak out about the President getting a bee-jay.
You know what? 1998 was unsustainable. So was 2005. That was the height of the party but now it’s the next morning we’re still lying on the cold tile in front of the toilet fighting off the dry heaves. There is no hair of the dog to make it all better.
But the thing is people don’t even like or trust the Republicans either. To paraphrase Pres. Obama and Slate columnist John Dickerson America gave the GOP the keys back but it was more of an “ugh, you try to drive this thing” than a “I have full confidence in your ability to operate this vehicle.”
Huge amounts of Democrats (and many Republicans) who had the courage to do the right thing and prevent the US economy from freezing up to the point that it fell to pieces in Fall 2008 and Spring 2009 were rewarded for their courage with losing their jobs – replaced by opportunists who played on the inherently confusing nature of macroeconomics to make simpler points like “she sold us out to Wall Street” and “the stimulus didn’t do anything.”
My prediction for the next two years is zero significant legislation passed. None. The democrats had a hard enough time passing anything with a 59-41 Senate and a 75 seat majority in the house. In fact I think we’ll be lucky if there’s not brinksmanship regarding the Federal budgets such as we saw after the Gingrich revolution in ’94. As someone who works with Social Security benefits on a daily basis I’m starting to think about what we’re going to do when the Federal government shuts down and the Social Security checks don’t come one month. I think it’s going to be a pretty dark couple of years.
In a couple of days (once all the votes are counted) I’ll revisit my predictions (see previous post) which seem pretty good so far.
November 3, 2010 at 11:42 pm |
“My prediction for the next two years is zero significant legislation passed.”
I hope you’re right.
I fear a grimmer outcome – where legislation does get passed. The dems have shown no indications of any boldness or backbone since at least 2006. In the last two years they squandered opportunities out of timidity, and gave ground at every turn in exchange for no concessions from the other side.
I fear that the dems will keep caving, and that Obama, out of a bizarre desire to be “bipartisan”, will pass basically republican bills. Despite huge democratic majorities, the recent health care bill was more conservative than what the republicans proposed in the 1990s! The financial bill makes for easier-to-read credit card statements, but addresses no major structural problems. The dems turned and fled on closing Guantanamo, climate change legislation, and even a tiny shift toward more progressive taxation.
The stimulus was anemic because, you guessed it, the democrats caved and included bullshit tax breaks instead of real investments in infrastructure.
We’re living in a declining country. Our roads and bridges are shitty, by first-world standards. Trivially modest plans for high speed rail are projected to cost tens of billions, and take thirty years, making them politically infeasible. Meanwhile, there’s endless money for pointless, unwinnable wars. The National Broadband “Plan” would bring American household Internet speeds up to where South Korea and northern Europe are currently, *in 20 years*. Does this sound like the country that sent men to the moon?
TLDR: Hillbilly country can fuck the hell off. “Compromising” with them has harmed us greatly.
November 4, 2010 at 3:50 pm |
Ed, I don’t think you’ll have to worry about compromising. This election continued to push the GOP further to the right and a huge number of blue dog Democrats lost as well. The only real middle of the road deal-maker I see elected was Joe Manchin in WV (taking the place of Blanche Lincoln as probably the biggest thorn in the side of the Democratic agenda).
And this is the problem facing Congress in the last few years and going forward. As much as the GOP base hates RINOS and the Dem base hates DINOS these are the people that are really needed to get things done, especially through a Senate where 60 votes are now needed for every single bill. As Congress gets more and more partisan and less willing to compromise, as long as the divide continues on both sides, the more you’ll see a government unable to do anything at all legislatively.
“The stimulus was anemic because, you guessed it, the democrats caved and included bullshit tax breaks instead of real investments in infrastructure.”
From what I’ve heard most economists think the tax cuts that went directly into increasing take home pay for workers was one of the most effective ways to stimulate the economy because it is immediate and most workers won’t even notice the pay increase and thus will be less likely to use it to pay down debt or save and instead just spend it right away. While something like a $500 check for every American may have made more political hay for Obama the sheer visiblity of that payment would have resulted in less stimulative behavior (savings, debt pay-down) – in the end the stimulus did go the more stimulative route.
November 4, 2010 at 6:37 pm |
“Ed, I don’t think you’ll have to worry about compromising. This election continued to push the GOP further to the right and a huge number of blue dog Democrats lost as well.”
This implies that the democrats have a collective backbone and won’t just give ground over and over for nothing in return. Nothing in the past 5 years at least suggests that the dems will display any fortitude whatsoever.
Part 2 of this This American Life episode does a good job of chronicling the dems wussiness and missed opportunities:
http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/417/this-party-sucks
I stand corrected about the payroll witholding deduction. That’s about the only kind of tax cut in a stimulus bill worth having.
November 4, 2010 at 6:45 pm |
“Nothing in the past 5 years at least suggests that the dems will display any fortitude whatsoever.”
I think this gives short shrift to the fact that actually getting ANTYHING in the way of comprehensive health insurance reform passed was the congressional equivalent of moving a freaking mountain. I don’t necessarily think the law was particularly great but that fact that they got anything is amazing to me.
November 4, 2010 at 6:58 pm |
They passed a republican bill. Barely. If that’s impressive I guess I’ve got much higher standards.